A group of Republicans who want to rid their party of President Donald Trump is making a hefty investment to turn Florida blue.

And they have help from one of ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s former top political strategists.

Officials with Republican Voters Against Trump, a national super PAC, said Monday they would begin a campaign aimed at persuading politically moderate Floridians to back Joe Biden, hopeful that the support of those voters can swing the battleground state — and possibly the presidency — toward the Democratic presidential candidate this fall.

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The effort, dubbed “Project Orange Crush,” is expected to spend $8 million to $10 million over the next two months, officials with the group say, and will include TV, social media, and digital ads. It will target nearly a half-million voters in the state, including independents and moderate Republicans who are wary of Trump but have not yet committed to voting for Biden.

“Our plan is to surgically target the key 450,000 Independents and soft Republicans who will decide the election,” said a memo from the group, obtained by the Miami Herald.

And the group is leaning on the experience of GOP operatives with deep ties to Florida politics: Mike Murphy, who twice helped Bush win the Florida governor’s office, will lead the campaign, while David Hill, a former Bush pollster, is also involved.

The group is focusing on Florida for three reasons: Biden’s narrow advantage in Florida-based polls, Florida’s status as the country’s largest swing state and the diversity of Florida’s electorate, much more than other key swing states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

“Florida is a strong hedge against any potential Trump comeback [in the] industrial Midwest,” the memo said.

Republican Voters Against Trump also conducted polling with Florida Republicans and independent voters who aren’t fully committed to either Trump or Biden. The polling, conducted in July, found that a majority of voters in certain groups — women, independents and people age 65 and older who aren’t backing either candidate — were leaning towards Biden. Of those polled, a majority of men and registered Republicans were leaning towards Trump. The two candidates were tied overall, the poll found.

The group said their poll results, which showed Biden leading among independents and getting 40% support from Republicans who aren’t sold on Trump, is evidence that a key group of voters can be persuaded to vote against the president with the right messaging campaign.

“The purpose was to test messages and perceptions among these soft and undecided voters,” the memo said.

Project Orange Crush organizers said they will spend money in an effort to persuade this small group of voters. The group’s digital campaign will begin this week, with TV ads to begin in mid-September. As a super PAC, Republican Voters Against Trump can raise unlimited sums of money from donors but cannot coordinate with campaigns.

The effort is the latest campaign spending push in Florida, where ad spending for the 2020 election has already surpassed the $133 million spent on the 2016 presidential election.

The Biden campaign has announced a $280 million TV and digital ad buy across 15 states ahead of the November election, though has not announced state totals. The Trump campaign has already purchased at least $36 million in TV time for September, October and November in Florida, according to Advertising Analytics, a firm that tracks campaign ad buys.

Biden has maintained a small lead in every Florida poll released throughout the summer, but both campaigns view the state as a toss-up in November.

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This story was originally published August 31, 2020 10:03 AM.

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Alex Daugherty is the Washington correspondent for the Miami Herald, covering South Florida from the nation’s capital. Previously, he worked as the Washington correspondent for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and for the Herald covering politics in Miami.
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Alex Roarty has written about the Democratic Party since joining McClatchy in 2017. He’s been a campaigns reporter in Washington since 2010, after covering politics and state government in Pennsylvania during former Gov. Ed Rendell’s second term.