Gainesville
Women voters in Florida are turning out in larger numbers than men so far, with just five days before Election Day, in a year when abortion rights and a female presidential nominee are on the ballot.
The gender split could erode former President Donald Trump’s expected margins in the state — with polls showing women breaking for Vice President Kamala Harris — and push the highly controversial abortion rights constitutional amendment closer to passage.
With more than 6.6 million votes already cast by Friday, about 3.6 million of those came from women across all parties, compared to about 3 million from men, according to a new analysis of real-time turnout data by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications.
About 11 million people total voted in 2020, and 9.6 million people voted in 2016.
MORE: Which party has the lead in vote by mail, early voting in South Florida?
The new analysis is based on government data that show who voted so far — but not how they voted. Democrats in Florida have said they expected higher than usual turnout by women — even among Republican women voters — because of the proposed constitutional amendment that would reverse tough limits on abortions passed by the GOP-led Legislature and Gov. Ron DeSantis. Some Republican women have expressed strong anti-abortion sentiments.
Among Democrats, over 505,000 more women have voted in Florida so far than men. Among Republicans, nearly 3% more women — or more than 89,000 — have voted so far than men. About 17,000 more women who were not affiliated with any political party voted than the same group of men.
“You’re having a record turnout among Democratic and Republican women — among liberal, moderate and conservative women,” said Sharon Austin, a University of Florida political science professor who studies urban politics and American government. “Some of them really want Trump to win, and some of them really want Trump to lose.”
Austin said Republican women were turning out in large numbers because they favored Trump’s messages about the economy and pro-life policies – which could doom passage of the abortion rights amendment.
Brighid Arwen Macchia, 20, of Vero Beach is president of the Young Democrats of Indian River, a GOP-leaning county on Florida’s eastern coast. Trump soundly beat Biden in the county with 59% of the vote in 2020, and he beat Hillary Clinton there with nearly 61% of the vote in 2016.
Macchia has been knocking on doors and working phone banks to increase turnout. She said her phone bank convinced a Trump supporter this week to vote for Harris after a conversation about accusations of sexual harassment against Trump and his role in weakening abortion rights.
“This woman went from being a Trump supporter to saying, ‘OK, I’m going to go to the polls. I’m going to bring my sisters, and we’re going to vote Kamala Harris,’ ” Macchia said. “There’s stories like that constantly.”
Political impacts of gender gap
How the gender gap in Florida could affect the presidential election or down-ballot races here is complicated. Democrats hope Harris can appeal to potential GOP-crossover women voters who might be turned off by Trump’s increasingly dire rhetoric, such as when he told a campaign rally this week that he will protect women “”whether the women like it or not.”
Pre-election polls have consistently shown Trump with stronger support among men than women, but polls have also consistently shown Trump winning Florida overall by large margins.
It was also not immediately clear whether the gender gap would persist through Election Day, or whether women have been more likely to cast mail ballots or vote early.
In Bradenton, Linda DeLozier Ivell, 69, is president of the Sarasota Republican Women’s Club. She doesn’t believe the abortion rights amendment — opposed by DeSantis and other GOP leaders in Florida — will convince Republican women to cross party lines to vote for it or Harris. She has been handing out the Republican voter guide every day outside one of the early voting polling locations.
“I do not think there’s going to be too much crossover on Amendment 4,” Ivell said. “I think it’s just too extreme to reflect the interests of women in our area in particular, and if you can’t get women to support that, I doubt that anyone else is.”
In Lakeland, Dena DeCamp, 68, runs the Polk County Republican Party campaign headquarters. She encouraged Republican women to vote early because Trump encouraged it, she said. She cited the economy and inflation as reasons to support Trump.
Trump beat Biden in Polk County in central Florida with 56% of the vote in 2020, and he beat Clinton by a similar margin in 2016.
“He went into office in 2016, he made our life better. He improved the economy. He improved our standing among all the other countries in the world,” she said. “What our job was, was to go out and remind people how good it was when Donald Trump was president last time.”
Reasons for the difference?
One reason more women among Democrats are voting than men in the party is that there are more of them. Since the 2020 election, more than 200,000 men have fled the Democratic Party in Florida, registering as having no party affiliation or as Republicans. Republican men also left their party since the 2020 election but in much smaller numbers.
Austin, the UF professor, said the Democratic Party’s emphasis on progressive policies was responsible.
“Some of the progressive causes are things that many people don’t agree with,” Austin said. “That’s something that’s off putting, and that really alienates some voters, especially some male voters.”
The gender gap in turnout isn’t surprising, said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor and assistant director of the University of Central Florida School of Politics, Security and International Affairs.
In American politics, women are more likely to support Democratic candidates, while men are more likely to vote Republican, Jewett said. The gender gap in politics extends further than party support. Women are just more likely to vote than men, he said.
“They are, on average, more engaged, more likely to be registered and to actually show up and vote,” Jewett said. He agreed that the abortion rights amendment and Harris’ candidacy were likely driving large turnout among women so far.
“You would think that might inspire a lot more women to show up early. They might be really mobilized,” Jewett said. “Who knows, maybe they’re old school, and they’re going to show up on election day.”
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This story was produced by Fresh Take Florida, a news service of the University of Florida College of Journalism and Communications. These reporters can be reached at vivienneserret@ufl.edu and ellathompson@freshtakeflorida.com. You can donate to support our students here.