Green Bay Pro Bowl running back Aaron Jones has the Dolphins among teams he’s willing to consider. And the interest is mutual, according to a league source.
And that presents the Dolphins with a key question less than a month from the start of free agency:
Should the team bid significant money to try to lure an elite veteran at a position that can be cheaply addressed in the draft?
The Dolphins have only $26 million in cap space if the cap ends up at $180 million. (The cap could rise to as high as $185 million.)
Miami could create another $21.3 million in cap space by restructuring the contracts of Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy and Ereck Flowers.
They could save another $15 million in cap space by releasing receivers Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns and safeties Bobby McCain and Clayton Fejedelem. (Quick aside: We’re not advocating the release of McCain, who played well, but it does come with significant cap savings.)
So those moves would create $62.3 million in space — which would allow Miami to bid for for a high-end receiver and running back.
In early February, two reporters linked the Dolphins to Jones.
SportsBook Review’s Ian Wharton said: “Miami or the Jets are the two teams most likely to sign him, from what I’ve heard.”
Indianapolis-based reporter Evan Massey reported that Jones “is expected to receive heavy interest from the Dolphins, 49ers, Steelers and Bears. Plenty of other teams will have interest, but those four are teams to keep a close eye on. Green Bay would like to re-sign him as well.” He later added the Jets to that list.
Those reports of Dolphins’ interest were confirmed to me by a league source who speaks with the Dolphins but is not affiliated with Jones.
And there’s a lot to like about Jones:
He has a career average of 5.2 yards per carry, including 5.5 last season, which was fifth best in the league and best among backs with at least 200 carries.
He ran for 1,104 yards last year (fourth in the league) and has 25 rushing touchdowns during the past two seasons.
The former fifth-round pick out of UTEP has consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, having run for 1,084 yards on 4.6 per carry in 2019. And that 2019 season was the only one that Jones averaged less than five yards per carry.
He’s a capable receiver out of the backfield, having caught 131 passes for 1,057 yards (an 8.1 average) and six touchdowns in his four-year career.
And he’s only 26.
But he won’t come cheaply.
Pro Football Focus predicts (this is a prediction, not a report) that the Dolphins will give him a four-year, $46 million contract, with $25 million guaranteed.
PFF rates him the best running back in this free agent class — and 44th-best player overall — and predicts “Jones will likely encounter a slim market due to more NFL front offices recognizing the value — or lack thereof — of the running back position. This is no disrespect to Jones, who is a great athlete and an NFL running back, but his position simply doesn’t stack up in terms of wins and losses on the football field.
“Jones was the 10th-most valuable running back of the 2020 season, generating 0.13 WAR. That made him just the ninth-most valuable player in Green Bay’s offense.
“Miami is just one of a few teams that will have the cap space and be willing to sign Jones to a deal of this magnitude. They fielded one of the least efficient rushing attacks of the 2020 season.”
PFF said Jones “ranks fourth in receiving grade among running backs since the start of the 2019 season, behind only Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara, each of whom has had a big payday in large part because of that skill.
“Jones is a well-rounded threat at the position and a player with little in the way of weaknesses. He has also been kept relatively fresh by Green Bay’s use of a committee approach to their backfield, so should still have tread left on the tires.”
This past weekend, it was notable that agent Drew Rosenhaus — who represents Jones — and WSVN-Fox 7 sports anchor Josh Moser led off their weekly Sunday night segment with Moser noting Jones has spent the past week in Miami and asking Rosenhaus “how realistic is it that he ends up with the Dolphins.” This wouldn’t have been asked if this wasn’t a potential thing.
Rosenhaus’ answer: “I’m not sure. The Dolphins like their current running back group, including Myles Gaskin, who had a big year last year.... Aaron Jones is one of the best overall players in free agency. First-class person, first-class player. Just too early to say if the Dolphins might be interested. Obviously, they’ve got my number. We talk a lot about different things. For right now, we’ll find out in a couple of weeks.”
Teams can begin speaking with outside free agents on March 15 and sign them beginning March 17.
But here’s the question: If the Dolphins clear out $60 million in space, would they be smarter to use that money at receiver and on another front seven defender?
Miami could find a skilled running back at No. 18 (Alabama’s Najee Harris or Clemson’s Travis Etienne), No. 36 (North Carolina’s Javonte Williams or Ohio State’s Trey Sermon) or 50 (perhaps Williams or Sermon or UNC’s Michael Carter).
The Dolphins spent time with Harris at the Senior Bowl, but one former general manager said he would be surprised if the Dolphins pick a running back at 18 and that Harris figures to be gone by 36.
“Many compare Harris to former Crimson Tide running back Derrick Henry, but I believe Harris is a better outside runner and more athletic,” draft analyst Tony Pauline of profootballnetwork.com. “Similarly, he reminds me of a better exterior runner than Le’Veon Bell but with the same power, short-yardage quickness and footwork on the inside as the former Steelers back.”
If the Dolphins sign Jones, Gaskin likely would be his backup. If the Dolphins draft a running back, that player would compete with Gaskin for the starting job.
So the Jones situation bears watching, especially if the Dolphins start clearing out ample cap space.
Here’s my Tuesday Marlins six-pack, with some important news for Marlins fans who like to watch the team on TV.
And check back later today for a Heat 6-pack.
This story was originally published February 23, 2021 3:23 PM.
