A six-pack of Miami Marlins notes on a Thursday:
▪ The Marlins made more than their fair share of mistakes last winter; high on the list was opting not to acquire a natural center fielder who could consistently hit big-league pitching.
The Marlins tried but couldn’t come up with a trade package for several targets (including Minnesota’s Byron Buxton) and opted against signing a natural center fielder from a weak free agent class. (Corner outfielders Avisail Garcia and Jorge Soler were signed instead; the Marlins didn’t want to spend the money on Nick Castellanos.)
It’s a mistake that cannot be repeated. (Nor they can trust that the farm system will solve the problem at first base, either.)
The Marlins likely will try to acquire a veteran center fielder by trade, using their surplus of starting pitching. If they cannot, then Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez could get the job by default.
“I‘m not sure we have a true center fielder on our roster,” Don Mattingly said before departing as manager, with Skip Schumaker replacing him this week.
“Bryan De La Cruz has looked good out there. JJ Bleday in general has looked good out there. He’s had some trouble around the wall. Other than that, JJ has been pretty solid. Those are the only guys we have that you feel good about playing center.”
Bleday cannot be a consideration for the center-field job in 2023; he batted only .167 (five homers, 16 RBI) in 204 big-league at-bats. His on-base percentage (.277) wasn’t nearly good enough to project him as a 2023 starter.
But De La Cruz’s excellent final month of the season puts him in good position to make the team as a potential fourth or fifth outfielder next spring, at the very least. He closed at .252, with 13 homers and 43 RBI in 329 at-bats.
Has De La Cruz shown he can be a big-league starter?
“Hard to say he can’t be,” Mattingly said. “Can he do that over the course of the season, day in and day out? He has to have opened some eyes to the fact he’s hitting with power, his average. Just watching his at-bats, you see this guy is different than what we saw in [earlier] parts of the year.”
Sanchez’s strong work in Jacksonville after his demotion also puts him in play for the center-field job; he played 78 games in center for the Marlins last season. (More on Sanchez in a minute.)
But can the Marlins confidently project the full-time center field job to De La Cruz or Sanchez, both of whom are better suited to a corner outfield spot? That would be risky.
Potential center-field trade targets could include Kansas City’s Michael A. Taylor (.254, 9 homers, 43 RBI in 124 games) and Texas’ Adolis Garcia (.250, 27 homers, 101 RBI in 156 games). Garcia is a .243 career hitter who hit 31 homers as a rookie in 2021.
Aside from Yankees star Aaron Judge and the Mets’ Brandon Nimmo (a Scott Boras client who will be expensive), the group of free agent center fielders is dismal, filled with sub-.200 hitters.
Beyond Nimmo, the highest-paid player on the list of free agent center fielders, Kevin Kiermaier, hit .228 with 7 homers and 22 RBI in 63 games for Tampa before a hip injury and surgery ended his season in July.
Nimmo hit .274 with 16 homers and 64 RBI in 151 games.
▪ As for the corner outfield jobs, the Marlins could decide that they’re covered there with Garcia, Soler, De La Cruz and Sanchez — even though Garcia and Soler are coming off bad years, Soler is coming off a back injury, and Sanchez was awful for three months before regaining his stroke in Jacksonville.
Soler also could end up at designated hitter.
Sanchez is “very talented,” Mattingly said. “This guy has a chance to make a big impact on your club. Just the power he has and what he can do physically. If he can be consistent with that approach — if you add Soler healthy and Sanchez being consistent all year long and De La Cruz being consistent all year long, all of a sudden your lineup looks a lot different.
“It’s very important for the organization if Sanchez has that consistency. We always know there’s a chance for that to be great because of his ability.”
Sanchez hit .205 in 94 games for the Marlins this past season before being demoted to Jacksonville, where he hit .308, with six homers and 27 RBI in 42 games.
Sanchez, through a translator, acknowledged that he agreed with Mattingly’s assessment that pitchers made adjustments after watching him thrive in 2021 (.251, 14 homers in 64 games) and Sanchez didn’t make enough adjustments in response.
“I wasn’t able to execute the game plan, and that’s something I’m trying to improve,” Sanchez said. “Just have a better knowledge of the pitchers I’m going to face that day.
“This season compared to last season, they made the adjustment, watched more videos of how to pitch me. I will get better with the game plan. I understand I am here to perform and I was not performing at the time” they demoted me.
He said the time at Jacksonville helped him. If he can recapture what he did in 2021, he could end up a starter again.
▪ As for first base, the plan heading into 2022 seemed simple enough: Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar would share first base and designated hitter duties for the Marlins, then pass the reins to Lewin Diaz next season.
But Diaz has shown no ability to consistently hit major-league pitching, batting .181 in 321 career at-bats and .169 in 160 at-bats this season.
He had five homers this season and 13 in 112 career games, but because of the low average and poor contact, the power isn’t enough to convince the Marlins he’s ready to be a starter.
So the Marlins will need to figure out first base again this offseason, whether it means sticking with Cooper (who’s arbitration-eligible for a final season), using pitching to acquire a first baseman via trade or signing a free agent.
The free agent first base class is led by Jose Abreu (.304, 15 HR, 75 RBI for the White Sox), Josh Bell (.266, 17, 71 for Washington and San Diego) and Trey Mancini (.239, 18, 63 for Baltimore and Houston).
Another other option: Yuli Gurriel (.242, 8, 53 for Houston). He hit .319 in 2021.
Donovan Solano (.284 in 80 games for Cincinnati) and Brandon Drury (.263, 28, 87 for Cincinnati and San Diego) can play first and multiple other positions, as well.
The Padres will almost assuredly buy out Wil Myers, who has a $20 million team option and $1 million buyout. He hit .261, 7, 41 in 77 games.
Minnesota likely will pay $3 million to buy out Miguel Sano’s $16 million option, but he played in only 20 games because of knee issues and isn’t an answer.
Anthony Rizzo (..224, 32, 75 in 130 games for the Yankees) has a $16 million player option.
The Marlins likely will use pitching — potentially Pablo Lopez — to acquire a center fielder, considering the free agent center field class is awful, or a corner infielder.
But how to address first base is a problem.
▪ The Marlins’ third baseman in 2023 could be arbitration-eligible Joey Wendle or Jordan Groshans, with Brian Anderson a been there/done that option.
And Jon Berti can play third, though his .240 average (.324 on base) makes him a fringe starter, despite his NL-leading 41 stolen bases.
▪ The Marlins face some tough decisions on a couple of their arbitration-eligible players.
MLBtraderumors.com projects Wendle would get $5.4 million in arbitration, presuming his $6.3 million mutual option is declined.
The website’s other projected salaries for arbitration-eligible Marlins: Cooper ($4.1 million), Dylan Floro ($4.2 million), Anderson ($5.2 million), Jacob Stallings ($3.3 million), Berti ($2.4 million), Pablo Lopez ($5.6 million), Jesus Luzardo ($2 million), Tanner Scott ($2.7 million), Elieser Hernandez ($1.8 million), Cole Sulser ($1 million) and Jeff Brigham ($800,000).
Anderson, whose average slid to .222, is a trade candidate and also a nontender candidate.
▪ Though Mattingly was a .307 career hitter, he indicated there wasn’t much he could do directly to help develop the team’s young hitters, most of whom have struggled.
“It’s hard as the manager to get involved too much with the hitting, really hard to make an impact on the hitting,” he said. “You just don’t have the time. You have to be in the cage with guys.”
▪ Miami has about $45 million in guaranteed commitments on the books for next season, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That doesn’t include potential arbitration raises for Wendle, Cooper, Stallings, Berti, Lopez and Anderson.
Even if Lopez is traded, the first four on that list could push the payroll above $60 million.
Marlins owner Bruce Sherman has declined to say if the payroll will increase from $80 million. But he’s believed to be open to a modest increase.
This story was originally published October 27, 2022 12:29 PM.
